Legend Of The Four Beasts

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Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.

The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.

If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.

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Wiesbaden’s tax, set under local statute, applies to expenditure on gaming machines, and the city said the higher rate was part of its response to strained finances.

The decision is not yet legally binding, with a further opportunity to appeal the denial of ‘leave to appeal’ open to the applicants. This will be reviewed by the Federal Administrative Court of Leipzig.

In his original complaint, Braun also cited a study that found that nearly half of respondents were thinking of using illegal gambling services due to legal restrictions. 

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Carolyn Lidgerwood, an ACMA member, stressed the importance of respecting self-exclusion decisions, stating “providers must respect that decision” and “must have robust systems in place”. 

These remarks align with a broader regulatory focus on harm-minimisation within online gambling, where adherence to self-exclusion protocols is under closer scrutiny.

“These were serious breaches by Dabble. Wagering providers must have robust systems in place to protect people who have chosen to self-exclude,” Lidgerwood added.