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About Kamakura
This process of dumping nearly $1 trillion into the U.S. banking system has already begun. How is it going to work? There is currently a $1.5 trillion short term bill hamster wheel that the U.S. Treasury has been running on like a crazed mouse since April. They issue about $1.5 trillion in short term paper every month and pay it back with about the same in new short term issuance. They have about $1.6 trillion stuck in their bank account at the Federal Reserve, and that money is now coming out to pay down that hamster wheel. The issuance of new short term paper is slowing down. All this new money is going to stuff banks so full of short term cash that they will be forced to slam it into the existing supply of short term paper to such an extent that the rates are going to go negative, nominally. Nobody knows how deeply, but it’s definitely coming, probably in the next few days.
Below is the graph of 1-month rates from CNBC. They are about to cross the zero boundary.
When that happens, commodities prices are going to get completely unhinged. The cash on corporate balance sheets is going to start losing purchasing power very fast. And that will only encourage more dumping of it, and increase the positive feedback loop now already in place.
How to play Kamakura
At Tuesday’s hearing, AGA Vice President Tres York testified before the committee alongside Robert DeNault, head of enforcement and legal counsel at Kalshi. The AGA, one of the nation’s most strident critics of prediction markets, argued that an event contract on the Cowboys to beat the Giants does not differ fundamentally from the same wager placed at a sportsbook.
As with California, sports wagering is illegal in Texas. Greg Abbott, a three-term governor, is up for re-election in November, along with Dan Patrick, his lieutenant governor. Patrick, who vehemently opposes sports betting, also serves as president of the Texas Senate in his current role. Several attempts to legalise sports wagering since the 2018 PASPA decision have been foiled under Patrick’s leadership.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is in the middle of a heated US Senate campaign against Democratic challenger James Talarico. Paxton will be succeeded as Texas AG by state Senator Mayes Middleton, a Republican from Galveston, or his Democratic opponent Nathan Johnson, a state senator from Dallas.
About Kamakura
Before I sign off, to the staff writers, past and present; Steven Stradbroke, Peter Amsel, Jamie Hinks, John Blaise, Erik Gibbs, Lee Davy, Kirby Garlitos, Jasmine Solana, Leonard Postrado, Paul Seaton, Dan Taylor, Derek Tonin, Criz Hombrebueno, Ed Drake, Lee Bell, Rafi Farber, Daniel Gardner, Paul How, Admir Aljic, Anton Fabico, Mike O’Donnell, Jason Kirk, and Vince Martin, and our on-camera hosts Becky Liggero-Fontana, Dana Workman, Angelia Ong, Ed Pownall, Stephanie Tower and Tatjana Pasalic, to our excellent productions team Patrick Visenio, Jerome Guidotti, Rob Peacock, Ian Matteo, Glenn Ala, Chris Roxas, Geoff Salorio, Yancy Uy, Carol Tan, Evette Borromeo, Jeks Inanuran, Janus Martinez, Giselle Ordinario, Joseph Cataan, Sandy Ventosa, Carlos Dittborn, Mani Singh, Roland Naidoo.
And to all of the people behind the scenes Giron Perez, Joey Bote, Sid Isidro, Roger Castro, Tristan Villagracia, Jeremy Beltran, Ednelyn Agulto-Manalo, Jeh Almazan, Ian Ignacio, Red Bargan, Kimmy Maclang, Xeirus Sta. Ana, Lea Nicolle Luat, Catherine Resurreccion, Alexandre Esguerra, Jayson Pimentel, Samori Joseph, Cindy Padilla, Amanda Lopez, Rogelio Gabiano, Aries Hegina, Fawn Labrie, Anthony Dohm, Adrian Eden, Paolo Ramos, Emily Haruko Leeb, Mani Chagtai, Brad Lancaster, Carl Rivera, Alfredo Abaroa, Shannon M, Aphol Angeles, Vine and Zen Alvarez, Frey Sotelo, Daves Biag, Idn Aguliar, Angela Alano, Jeremy Yap and George F.
I thank you from the bottom of my heart. I hope you enjoyed it as much I enjoyed working with you.
