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Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.
As Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon points out, prediction markets generated $4.3 billion in taker volume during the first week of September without any help from the NFL, building on momentum from the 2026 World Cup. However, the NFL’s impact was immediate, with taker volume hitting a daily record during Week 1 of the campaign.
With all that in mind, it’s not surprising that Macquarie expects sports event contracts will drive approximately 80% of taker volume this year, but Beynon sees other categories growing over the long term.
About Burning Dice
For Kambi, data must be combined with the knowledge of experienced traders who can direct the technology, scrutinise its output and identify where it can add value next.
“You don’t have to search high and low in this industry to find companies talking up the benefits of AI,” Lamb adds. “Realising them requires a combination of deep data and human expertise not everyone has access to, and there is no shortcut to acquiring.”
The World Cup proved Kambi’s AI could perform under the greatest pressure sports betting can provide. The next task is to turn that tournament performance into new, increasingly on-demand experiences for its partners and their customers.
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He also pointed to the self-exclusion mechanism adopted by the government.
“The debate about prohibition will remain open in the country for the next few years,” he said. “It will be an institutional debate between the Supreme Court, Congress and the executive branch.
Durigan did not indicate that the government would prohibit the activity.