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However, some media industry observers have questioned whether trading activity can reliably stand in for broader public opinion. There are also concerns among critics over the growing links between news organizations and prediction platforms.
At the same time, prediction market operators are facing regulatory tussles in the US. State regulators are moving to shut down the firms under gambling laws. The companies say their contracts should be regulated at the federal level as derivatives.
However, the sector has grown substantially despite such disputes. Bernstein predicted in April that annual prediction market volume could reach $1 trillion by 2030. The research estimated volume was around $51 billion in 2025 and could grow to around $240 billion in 2026.
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Betting and iCasino GGR rose to €151.6 million from €146.5 million. Growth in iCasino resulted from an expanded game catalogue and a rapid expansion of live casino offerings.
Veikkaus’ international B2B subsidiary, Fennica Gaming, continued rapid expansion in H1 2026, with revenue increasing by 80.6% to €10.3 million from €5.7 million in the previous year.
This growth reflects the launch of eInstants and iCasino products across various markets, including Italy, Canada, parts of Germany, Mexico, the Czech Republic and Iceland.
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A contract purchased on Kalshi cannot simply be transferred and sold on Polymarket, even where the two markets appear to cover the same outcome. Each exchange may also define and resolve its contracts differently, creating an additional risk for firms trading across venues.
Liquidity can consequently become self-reinforcing. Market makers gravitate towards platforms offering dependable technology and substantial order flow, while their participation improves pricing and execution for consumers.
Sahil Patel, founder of competitive intelligence provider Aldrin AI, said those relationships help explain Kalshi’s position.
